"I hold the view that before Obama completes his term there will be from six to
eight right-wing governments in Latin America that will be allies of the empire.
Likewise, the US extreme right will try to limit his administration to one term.
Once again there will be a Nixon, a Bush or the like of a Cheney in the White
House. Then, the meaning will be clear of those absolutely unjustifiable bases
threatening today the South American peoples with the pretext of fighting
drug-trafficking, a problem created by the tens of billions of dollars that
organized crime and the production of drugs in Latin America receive from the
United States."
---Fidel Castro (see below)
==============================

===================
[Comment by Felipe Stuart in Managua]

Thanks to Walter L. and Fred F. for circulating the English-language version of
this most important Reflection by Fidel Castro.

I believe that Castro lays stress on two critical factors that will shape the
short and medium range outcome of the gathering storm in US-Latin-Indo American
conflict.

First, the objective limitations on the Obama presidency which excludes any
possibility that his performance can match up to the hopes and illusions that
large sectors around the globe have in the nature of his administration. Fidel
posed this question with a respectful tone accompanied by weighty impact.

Second, Fidel chose to emphasize the pessimistic side of possible developments,
with a likelihood of from six to eight right wing governmental allies of US
imperialism before the end of Obama's current term, and of his defeat by a right
wing Republican candidate in the next US presidential election. That may be
prescient on Fidel's part, but I am sure he does not think this outcome is
inevitable.

Nor is the defeat of the left south of the Rio Bravo pre-ordained. Fidel is
merely pointing to the powerful forces that could impose such a reverse; and
rightly so, because mindless optimism is not a good counsellor.

But this outcome depends also on what the oppressed and exploited of the
continent do, on what our governments in the ALBA alliance do, and how politics
unfolds in the main imperialist countries. It depends also on how US hot and
cold wars wars in the Mid-East, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran unfold.

Part of prudence about what is coming down in Latin-Indo America stems from
accidental features of bourgeois democratic electoral processes. A right wing
military coup against President Lugo in Paraguay is on the front burner, waiting
for the gas to be turned on. Both Brazil's Lula and Chile's Bachelet must step
down soon, and Argentina' Peronista government is relatively weak. Panama has
turned to a right wing pro US government, and Honduras ... well, no doubt the
instability will prevail and the repression will be intensified. The left center
presidencies in El Salvador and Guatemala are weak, and neither regime can be
said to be stable in the face of oligarchic opponents backed by reactionary
armies.


We should not ignore such factors, and more negative trends can be cited,
particularly the savage repression against indigenous people of Peru, especially
in the Peruvian Amazon.


The continental campaign to demonize presidential re-election, in this
framework, must be seen as completely reactionary. The masses are usually only
able to attain governmental power through the emergence of parties or movements
with strong leaders. This is not unique to our part of the world, nor to our
time. When we encounter leaders of the calibre of the Castro team, Chavez,
Morales, or Ortega, we have the intelligence not to have them discarded by the
whim of bourgeois legislators. We uphold the right of the people to judge their
leaders in democratic elections, and to either keep them in office or give them
a thumbs down. Constitutional abrogation of that right is antidemocratic and has
served the political and economic interests of a minority of privileged
exploiters no matter the country. If opponents want to get rid of a president,
or a deputy, or a mayor they should have to convince a majority of voters to
their position. Not get their way
through a "constitutional" scam.

The Brazilian people should have the right to re-elect Lula (or not), and the
Chileans the right to re-elect Bachelet. Likewise for Bolivians, Venezuelans,
and Ecuadorans to choose to re-elect their current presidents. The only country
where this right is supported by the pro-imperialist forces is Colombia where
they desperately hope for the re-election of Uribe. Like it or not, that is
something the Colombian people must have the right to decide in an election.

We Nicaraguans have regained the right to decide by secret ballot whether to
re-elect Daniel Ortega and the Sandinista government, or choose someone else.
The people should have that right, and fortunately a National Assembly amendment
to the Constitution during Violeta Chamorrow's presidency annulling that right
has now been voided as unconstitutional.

The international left needs to become more alert and current about new trends
in the Americas, particularly the meaning of Honduras and the US bases in
Colombia. It is true that Latin=Indo America present a new dawn and horizon of
hope for a socialist future, and for national liberation on all continents. All
the more reason why its defence from imperial assault becomes a priority task
before the oppressed and exploited on all continents.

Felipe Stuart
Managua
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reflections by comrade Fidel

A SCIENCE FICTION STORY

I very much regret to have to criticize Obama knowing that there are in that
country other could-be presidents worse than him. I am aware that that position
in the United States is today a major headache. The best example of this is the
report in yesterday's edition of Granma that 237 US members of Congress, or 44%,
are millionaires. This does not mean that every one of them is an incorrigible
reactionary but it is extremely difficult that they feel like the many million
Americans who do not have access to medical care, who are unemployed or who need
to work very hard to earn their living.

Of course, Obama himself is no beggar; he owns millions of dollars. He excelled
as a professional and his command of language, his eloquence and intellect are
unquestionable. Also, he was elected president despite his being an African
American, a first time occurrence in the history of his country's racist
society, which is enduring a profound international economic crisis of its own
making.

This is not about being an anti-American as the system and its huge media intend
to label its adversaries.

The American people are not the culprits but rather the victims of a system that
is not only unsustainable but worse still: it is incompatible with the life of
humanity.

The smart and rebellious Obama who suffered humiliation and racism in his
childhood and youth understands this, but the Obama educated by the system and
committed to it and to the methods that took him to the US presidency cannot
resist the temptation to pressure, to threaten and even to deceive others.

He is a workaholic. Perhaps no other American president would dare to engage in
such an intense program as he intends to carry out in the next eight days.

According to plan, he will take an extensive tour of Alaska where he intends to
address the troops stationed there. He will be visiting Japan, Singapore, the
People's Republic of China and South Korea. He will attend the Asia-Pacific
Economic Cooperation forum (APEC) and that of the Association of East Asian
Nations (ASEAN). He will hold talks with the Prime Minister of Japan and His
Majesty Emperor Akihito in the land of the Rising Sun as well as with the prime
ministers of Singapore and South Korea and the presidents of Indonesia Susilo
Bambang, of Russia Dimitri Medvedev and of the People's Republic of China Hu
Jintao. He will be making speeches and giving press conferences. He will be
carrying with him his nuclear briefcase, which we hope he will have no need to
use during his hasty tour.

His Security advisor has said that Obama will discuss with the president of
Russia the continuance of the START-1 Treaty set to expire on December 5,
2009. There is no doubt that some reductions of the enormous nuclear arsenal
will be agreed upon, albeit this will be of no consequence to world peace and
economy.

What is our distinguished friend planning to discuss during his intense journey?
The White House has made its solemn announcement: climate change and economic
recovery; nuclear disarmament and the Afghan war; and, the risks of war in Iran
and in the People's Democratic Republic of Korea. There is plenty of material to
produce a science fiction book.

But, how can Obama unravel the problems of climate change when the position of
his representatives during the preparatory meetings of the Copenhagen Summit on
the greenhouse effect gas emissions was the worst among those of the
industrialized and rich nations, both in Bangkok and Barcelona, because the
United States chose not to sign the Kyoto Protocol and the oligarchy of that
country is not willing to really cooperate.

How can he contribute to the solution of the grave economic problems afflicting
a large part of humanity when at the end of 2008 the total debt of the United
States --including that of the federal, state and local administrations, the
businesses and families-amounted to 57 trillion dollars, that is, over 400% of
its GDP, and that country's budget deficit reached almost 13% of its GDP in
fiscal year 2009, an information that Obama is certainly aware of.

What can he offer Hu Jintao when his openly protectionist policies have been
aimed against the Chinese exports and he is demanding at all costs that the
Chinese government revaluates the Yuan, an action that would adversely impact on
the growing Third World imports from China?

The Brazilian theologian Leonardo Boff, who is not a disciple of Karl Marx but
an honest Catholic among others who are not willing to cooperate with the
imperialism in Latin America, has recently said that "..we are risking our
destruction and the devastation of life's diversity."

"[.] almost half of humanity is living today under the poverty line. The
wealthiest 20% are consuming 82.49% of all of the riches on Earth while the
poorest 20% are living on a tiny 1.6%." He also quotes the FAO as he warns that
".there will be in the upcoming years from 150 to 200 million climate refugees."
And then he adds that "humanity is consuming today a 30% above the regenerating
capacity.the planet is giving unmistakable signs that it can stand it no more."

What he says is true, but Obama and the US Congress have yet to find out.

What is he leaving to us in the hemisphere? The shameful problem in Honduras and
the annexation of Colombia where the United States will set up seven military
bases. They also established a military base in Cuba more than one-hundred years
ago and remain there by force. It was in that base where they installed the
horrible torture center widely known around the world; the same that Obama has
been unable to close, yet.

I hold the view that before Obama completes his term there will be from six to
eight right-wing governments in Latin America that will be allies of the empire.
Likewise, the US extreme right will try to limit his administration to one term.
Once again there will be a Nixon, a Bush or the like of a Cheney in the White
House. Then, the meaning will be clear of those absolutely unjustifiable bases
threatening today the South American peoples with the pretext of fighting
drug-trafficking, a problem created by the tens of billions of dollars that
organized crime and the production of drugs in Latin America receive from the
United States.

Cuba has shown it only takes justice and social development to fight drugs. In
our country, the crime rate per 100,000 people is one of the lowest in the
world. No other country in the hemisphere can exhibit such low rates of
violence. It is known that, despite the blockade, no other country can boast our
high education levels.

The Latin American peoples will resist the onslaught of the empire!

Obama's trip seems a science fiction story.

Fidel Castro Ruz November 11, 2009
--

For more information about the Minnesota Cuba Committee and meeting times: www.minnesotacubacommittee.org